How the 2024 Presidential Election Could Influence the Housing Market

Policies, Rates and Housing Affordability

As the 2024 presidential election nears, Americans are paying close attention to more than campaign promises—they’re watching what may happen to their wallets, mortgages, and real estate values. While no one can predict the exact effect politics will have on housing, history and economics point to key trends that buyers, sellers, and investors should understand.

At Cindy Coggins Realty Group, we help clients see beyond the headlines to make confident, well-timed real estate decisions—because markets may shift, but strategy keeps you grounded.

1. Economic Policy & Interest Rates

Presidential policies can indirectly shape mortgage rates through fiscal and monetary channels. Although the Federal Reserve acts independently, its decisions often respond to national fiscal direction and inflation trends.

• If fiscal stimulus or increased government spending fuels inflation, the Fed may raise rates to keep it in check—potentially cooling housing demand.
• Conversely, if policies emphasize slower growth or fiscal restraint, rate cuts could follow, encouraging more buyers to re-enter the market.

According to the Federal Reserve Board’s 2024 economic outlook, mortgage rates historically trend upward during election years but tend to stabilize within months of the vote as markets adjust. (federalreserve.gov)

2. Housing Affordability & Supply

Housing affordability remains one of the top voter concerns in 2024. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) notes that home prices have outpaced income growth nationwide for much of the past decade, particularly in high-growth states like Texas. (huduser.gov)

Election-year housing proposals typically fall into two camps:

• Supply-side incentives, such as loosening zoning and offering tax credits for builders, could spur new construction and moderate prices.
• Demand-side relief, like first-time buyer credits or expanded FHA loan limits, may increase buying power but risk raising prices further if supply lags.

3. Tax & Incentive Policy

Federal tax policy can change the real estate calculus overnight. Homeowners benefit from deductions for mortgage interest and property taxes—two areas periodically revisited during tax reform discussions.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that adjustments to property and mortgage interest deductions could have “moderate but regionally uneven impacts” on homeownership affordability. (cbo.gov)

Potential outcomes include:

• Expanding deductions → increased demand and higher prices.
• Capping or removing deductions → cooling effects on luxury and high-tax markets.

4. Regulation & Construction Policy

The regulatory climate determines how quickly new housing gets built. According to the National Association of Home Builders’ 2024 report, regulatory compliance accounts for roughly 24% of new home costs. (nahb.org)

An administration favoring deregulation might streamline development approvals, increasing inventory and moderating costs. A policy shift toward stricter environmental or zoning rules could reduce supply, maintaining upward pressure on prices.

5. Consumer Confidence & Market Psychology

Political uncertainty often affects consumer confidence more than any policy itself. A Freddie Mac analysis of prior election years found that home-buying activity typically softens 10–15% in the three months leading up to an election, then rebounds once results are known. (freddiemac.com)

In other words, the housing market doesn’t fear elections—it pauses for clarity. For North Texas buyers, this pause may create short-term opportunities in inventory and negotiation.

Final Takeaway

The 2024 presidential election will bring uncertainty, but opportunity always lives within it. Policy shifts may influence mortgage rates, taxes, and construction—yet local fundamentals like Collin County’s job growth, affordability, and demand remain strong drivers of long-term value.

At Cindy Coggins Realty Group, we help clients anticipate—not react—to market movement, positioning every decision for stability and growth.

📞 Call or text: (469) 499-7452
📧 Email:  cindycoggins@kw.com

Sources:

• Federal Reserve Board. Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook. (2024). https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy.htm
• U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). Housing Market Data Portal. (2024). https://www.huduser.gov/portal/housing_market_data.html
• Congressional Budget Office. Fiscal Outlook & Policy Impacts on Homeownership. (2024). https://www.cbo.gov/
• National Association of Home Builders. Regulatory Costs of New Home Construction. (2024). https://www.nahb.org/